Season 2019/2020 Conclusion?

Clubs to vote on their preference....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52189058

How will Bath City vote?

I haven't heard yet, Oliver. What would you prefer?

What are the questions to vote on?

The League is asking clubs to vote on a resolution to bring the season to an end.

If passed, consultation will take place on how to resolve the present season...null and void, PPG, play offs etc

And it’s only one vote per club for the top tier - North and South have total of four each. So 17 NL clubs could see this extended for months...

I don't have a strong opinion either way as I don't know enough about the implications... I guess at a some point, it becomes more important that a decision is made, than what the decision is!

I’m not sure how the complication of having loan players from league clubs will affect us. Can they be released by the parent club before our season would end?
My wish would be... if we have the same squad to the end, let’s finish it..... if not end it now.

Do you mean released from their contract with their parent club? I assume that their loan periods with us end late April/early May and so we would have to negotiate a new arrangement for them to return.

Yes... we have really good squad so an amount of risk must exist in still having them all on potential restart. It may not be in same sync as FL parent clubs.

Hopefully not the case... just a thought I had

Unfortunately being subject to house arrest   I have too many hours to fill each day.  Suddenly hours on a coach around the M25 would seem to be enjoyable.

Although it may  be possible to continue the season in late summer/early autumn  this is fraught with complications plus it would clash with the start of the delayed cricket season!

As it looks possible the season may be closed and one option might be a points per game  calculation  applied to outstanding fixtures I wondered if some Duckworth/Lewis method could be utilised.

A simple averaging of points gained divided by games played does not take account of differences between teams outstanding  home and away fixtures and the potential to continue that averaging against the sides that constitute the unplayed fixtures.

As a result I looked at our home average points per game (2.06 home ) and (1.56 away) and did the same for each of the sides that represent our outstanding fixtures.  Take  the home game with Havant - on a simple average would provide us with 2.06 points but Havant average 2.29 away from home.  Therefore our points for that game should be adjusted downwards  by an element of  0.23  (The difference between Havant’s away average of 2.29 and our home of  2.06).   So for that fixture we are awarded  1.83 points.

As with Duckworth/Lewis there is the potential for some anomalous outcomes such as our home fixture with Welling who only average 0.94 points per away fixture. Our home average  of 2.06 adjusted by the difference between  that and Welling’s away level provides us with  an award of 3.18   for that fixture.  Similarly we gain more than 3 points from the Chelmsford who have also  been weak away from home.  Although it looks odd it does compensate for the fact that if we had  played Welling and Chelmsford   at home  ( rather than two of  the sides we actually  did play)  then our home points won prior to shut down may have been higher. Other sides who have played them at home  would have the benefit in the inflation of their  home points average.

On this basis  our unplayed fixtures yield 15.61 (subject to rechecking)  points  to add to our existing 63.

All this achieves is to produce (possibly) a fairer  end of season suggested league table. What anyone does with it is another matter.

I don't think it is reasonable to apply any formula to remaining games. It might be reasonable for one game but it cannot take account of form. Some teams hit a purple patch at the right time some can't buy a point.
Fairest is just make the season null and void as if it never happened.

Havant’s thoughts on the matter...

https://www.havantandwaterloovillefc.co.uk/havant-and-waterlooville-fc-statement-open-letter-to-the-national-league/

If H&W ask for that, we should go for alphabetical order...

which would get Weymouth's support!

I think clubs will vote to end season, and NL will offer certainly the top team going up in each division either as it stands or simple PPG. 2 up depends on EFLagreeing a relegation, then NL wont want a play off scenario in NLS or NLN so 2nd team to go up, or PPG if only 1 of the 2nd placed teams can go up.

If the leagues were finished using disciplinary records Yeovil will be relegated

I can see Havant wishing to have a points per game adjustment and then direct promotion.

I had previously provided  an arithmetic calculation  that attempted to take account of home and away averages with an adjustment factor to reflect the relative strength of the teams that represent the unplayed fixtures.

I have also done the same calculation for both Havant & Weymouth. Compared with our points adjustment level of 15.61. The figures for Havant is 20.46 (8 games) and for Weymouth it is  15.01. What is interesting is that Havant’s home form is not that great. They do have an excellent away record and were unbeaten so far.   (Of course, they had not been to us).  If they were to finish second  they may have struggled with 2 home games to win in  the play-offs  (These calculations have not been re-checked).

As a novel suggestion and assuming the season could start in a reasonable timescale you could play the outstanding games at the start of the season with the results counting for both season 2019/20 and 2020/21. This would take say the first 5 weeks and then there is a short break whilst the 2019/20 play-offs take place assuming  this is the decided way forward
The teams that are promoted as champions and play-off winners would then take on the remaining fixtures of the teams they replace and the relegated sides do the same in National South/North. The promoted and relegated sides could have their points adjusted to the average of the total points they and their replacement achieved.  Say Wealdstone became champions  by gaining 16 points from 8  games played  in the Conf S and they replaced Ebbsfleet who earned 8 points from the same number of games in the National League then both would have an adjusted  12 points after 8 games in their  new leagues. Any promoted side could be exempt from any transfer window restrictions.

Obviously whatever outcome is chosen has to cover the problem caused by the Bury situation.

Personally, I would prefer some sort of finalised league table whether through matches eventually played or on PPG, however calculated. At least it would give some arbitrary value to the money that supporters have  spent watching City both home and away this season.

 It's gonna have to be simple !

Gerry. Peter's solution sounds simple enough to me!!

Good ideas from Kermy and Peter.

I have just heard that Strudwick says his abacus can't cope and the back of his fag packet is too small for the calculations.  

Hopefully the powers that be can remember this - https://www.theguardian.com/football/2010/jan/10/fa-cup-1963-freeze-abandonments - when it was a longer period of no football / "lockdown";  there is still a good chance of finishing this season properly.  

Rob, I wouldn't put faith in anything Strudwick might suggest to do. Is he still involved with the National League?

kermit wrote:Rob, I wouldn't put faith in anything Strudwick might suggest to do. Is he still involved with the National League?

Apparently Dennis Strudwick retired back in 2015 - the whereabouts of the fag packet are unknown!

So, reading Havant's statement, they are suggesting that the correct outcome would be deciding the league standings on points per game, meaning that Havant accept that it would be reasonable for them not to be able to win automatic promotion (Wealdstone have the best points per game in Conference South).  They also suggest that only straight promotion without play offs would be agreeable, meaning that only Wealdstone were eligible for promotion, as they would be the only team in a straight promotion place.  So, Havant also accept that it would be reasonable for them not to be able to win promotion through the play offs.

Whilst it is impossible to guess what approach the Conference will ultimately take, if they were to choose to promote Wealdstone, but not play any play offs to decide a second promotion spot, then Havant will already have confirmed, in this statement, that such an approach will be reasonable.

Of course, until the Football League decide what they are doing, it is impossible for the Conference to decide what they are doing.  However, one probable scenario would be that the Football League decide to accept just one team from the Conference, to bring their numbers back up to an even number, and then the Conference decide to promote one team from Conference North / South (to keep their numbers even), in which case Wealdstone have the best points per game across Conference North and South.  Alternatively, the Conference may then decide to relegate Chorley, and promote two teams, and next in line for that would be Kings Lynn Town.

Unless it becomes possible to finish the season (which seems unlikely), I doubt that there would be any scope for relegating any team other than Chorley from the Conference, so, I imagine that the Conference will be relieved that they can expect no objection from Havant to the idea of suspending this season's play off promotion spots.

League should just call it a day now. Promote Barrow to football league and no relegation. If Wealdstone have best points average from North and South put them in Conf National to make the numbers up, they are welcome to it can't see them surviving more than one season. Again no relegation from Conf National. Move Gloucester over to Conf South and put Bury in Conf North providing they can show that they are in a stable enough position. Not sure what the latest position is with Bury.

SteveS wrote:League should just call it a day now. Promote Barrow to football league and no relegation. If Wealdstone have best points average from North and South put them in Conf National to make the numbers up, they are welcome to it can't see them surviving more than one season. Again no relegation from Conf National. Move Gloucester over to Conf South and put Bury in Conf North providing they can show that they are in a stable enough position. Not sure what the latest position is with Bury.

I would largely agree with that resolution. However, promotion to the Football League really depends on what the Football League ultimately do. For example, it is not impossible that they decide to start League Two next season with the same 24 clubs that started this season. Or even if they end with a vacancy in League Two, they might not accept any club from an incomplete season in the Conference. There is one part of the suggestion that I would definitely oppose though, I would not let Steve Dale near any league at any level, ever!