This week's Fan's View

This week's offering

http://bathcityfansview.blogspot.co.uk/

back in the hope business

I'm not convinced that even seven wins out of nine would be enough to secure a play off spot. Seven wins out of nine would give City 68 points, only in the very first season of Conference South has any club reached the play off with fewer than 69 points, and only two other seasons with fewer than 72 (eight wins and a draw would give City 72).

It looks highly likely that the top four places will be between Bromley, Eastleigh, Sutton and Ebbsfleet. So, to reach fifth place, City would have to finish ahead of everyone else. All of those clubs have currently played fewer matches than City, so to give some idea of where they are, it may be worth looking at where City were at the point in the season that each of those clubs are at.

After 24 games, City had 33 points, Havant and Waterlooville currently have 40.
After 25 games, City had 36 points, Bishops Stortford currently have 42.
After 30 games, City had 42 points, Dover currently have 47, Eastbourne 46.
After 32 games, City had 44 points, Weston currently have 48.

That is a lot of catching up to do on a lot of teams.

You are probably right Alan except that there is fixture congestion.

I am a fan who certainly enjoys the game.....I know you do.....but I need the extra spice of something to go for. I can't help it!

Very interesting as always.
I think the play-offs are probably a remote possibility now. Call me cynical but I am still waiting for a couple of team to get the mandatory points deduction for going into adminstration! Sadly the more likely candidates are not those currently chasing a top 5 spot although you never know.
Some slightly odd results last night. Dover beating Bromley 4-0 at their place hasnt helped us much. I think despite the issue of fixture congestion the liklihood is some of the teams below us will pass us by. Hopefully we will get some Saturday games where the opposition have already played twice in that week.

pete mac wrote:You are probably right Alan except that there is fixture congestion.

Well, yes, but the teams suffering from fixture congestion will be playing against other teams suffering from fixture congestion.

Just too many teams in contention with too many games in hand.


Surprised Pratt is not on your retained list Pete?

Pratt one of my not sure's. I am looking for the new Ian Henderson, Graham Withey, John Freegard!

Pratt would be one of the first names on my list after Mellor and Ball. Mind you Stearn would be next and i doubt that is a shared view!!

what we think is irrelevant, but i guess stearn has a lot to do to win the management over for next season. i would hope both watkins and pratt are retained, but there needs to be additional fire power up front.

Oh also, whilst i agree with the bulk of the article, I strongly disagree with the Josh Low comments.
Key goals? I missed most of those. He scored a good one against Whitehawk which sealed the game and he scored his tap in last week, which was a gift.
Other than that i can only remember the one that brushed his buttocks on the way in from someone else's shot.

It's not just his work-rate for me, it's his overal contribution. I know he has had his moments but for me they have been too few. I am sure he was a fine player once. I just dont think he warrants a place in the team and his impact from the bench is often minimal.

Buttocks or not, they all count. I know Josh stirs up different views. I would love it if he ran round like a gazelle but he is getting towards the end of his career.

Good that Scott Wilson got a game last night and Ben Addelsbury/Aaron Brown are on their way back......

pete mac wrote:Pratt one of my not sure's. I am looking for the new Ian Henderson, Graham Withey, John Freegard!

Ian Henderson! The footballing lampost.

Yes, very little skill but very tall and scored loads with his head!

A36 wrote:I'm not convinced that even seven wins out of nine would be enough to secure a play off spot.  Seven wins out of nine would give City 68 points, only in the very first season of Conference South has any club reached the play off with fewer than 69 points, and only two other seasons with fewer than 72 (eight wins and a draw would give City 72).

It looks highly likely that the top four places will be between Bromley, Eastleigh, Sutton and Ebbsfleet.  So, to reach fifth place, City would have to finish ahead of everyone else.  All of those clubs have currently played fewer matches than City, so to give some idea of where they are, it may be worth looking at where City were at the point in the season that each of those clubs are at.

After 24 games, City had 33 points, Havant and Waterlooville currently have 40.
After 25 games, City had 36 points, Bishops Stortford currently have 42.
After 30 games, City had 42 points, Dover currently have 47, Eastbourne 46.
After 32 games, City had 44 points, Weston currently have 48.

That is a lot of catching up to do on a lot of teams.

Updating the current state:

After 28 games, City had 42 points, Havant and Waterlooville currently have 44, Bishops Stortford 43.
After 30 games, City had 42 points, Concord currently have 44.
After 32 games, City had 44 points, Dover currently have 53, Eastbourne 49.
After 33 games, City had 47 points, Weston currently have 48.

So, last night's 4-3 win away to Havant and Waterlooville probably makes Dover clear favourite for that fourth play off spot, although if Eastbourne win away to Dover tomorrow, then that might give Eastbourne the best chance of catching them.  Having said that, Dover won 4-0 away to Eastbourne last October, so they may have their work cut out to get anything tomorrow.

Anyway, after tomorrow's game between Dover and Eastbourne, third line above will become one of the following:

After 33 games, City had 47 points, Dover currently have 56, Eastbourne 49;
After 33 games, City had 47 points, Dover currently have 54, Eastbourne 50;
After 33 games, City had 47 points, Dover currently have 53, Eastbourne 52;

Any of which would leave City some way away from contending for the fourth play off spot.

In addition, Concord play Weston tomorrow, a game that they can't both lose.

We have had it then! Eastbourne win the best option then hope for the best!

I love the optimism of play off talk but I think we know that realistically we are incredibly unlikely to feature. A top half finish would represent a decent campaign. It's been a strange season in many ways, we have looked like both relegation and promotion candidates in a short space of time. If we can somehow keep hold of Ball, Pratt, Stearn and Watkins next season could be very interesting. Onwards and upwards

If we keep winning our games there is nothing the other teams can do about it. It is all about form and at the moment we are a team in form. It doesn't matter what team we start with we currently have a very strong bench. We do not need to fear anyone in this league.

Update again:

After 29 games, City had 42 points, Havant and Waterlooville currently have 47, Bishops Stortford 43.
After 31 games, City had 43 points, Concord currently have 47.
After 33 games, City had 47 points, Dover currently have 54, Eastbourne 50.

Still a lot of points to catch up on a lot of teams.  To get in the play offs, City would have to catch up seven points on Dover, five points on Havant, four points on Concord, three points on Eastbourne and a point on Bishops Stortford.  Even if City keep winning, that needs a lot of clubs to drop a lot of points.  Whilst, it is true that a win this evening would put City into fifth place, it wouldn't change the number of points to be made up (of course, it would help towards making up those points).  Alternatively, a win for Havant would mean that City then had to make up eight points to catch them up.

I would honestly rather miss out on the play-offs than lose a semi-final to Eastleigh. Then again despite Bromley's sudden return to form I think Eastleigh will win it.

All true Alan and too many clubs need to drop too many points but some will be playing each other and form will change, e.g., Stortford are finding it difficult to win at the moment. If it were not for Dover's position I would say a lot to play for, but they are in form.

Milestones are to first beat last season's points, now only 2 behind, then 65 points. Also see how we do against teams such as Sutton and Eastbourne who are in the mix. Finally, Concord, recovered well from early season form, another Canvey Island perhaps !

Being senile I don't understand what A36 is trying to present.   

I use this as one way of assessing  - http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/confsouth/league?sort=predicted (click the link below the table "This predicted table was calculated by predicting the scores that you may reveal below") - the likelihood of us being in the play-offs.

Looking at the fixtures and predicted results we will "drop" ten points.  Without calculating who we would take points off if we were to win ALL our remaining games the "extra" ten would put us in 5th place, so...easy peasy lemon squeezy...

Beau Nash wrote:Being senile I don't understand what A36 is trying to present.   

I use this as one way of assessing  - http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/confsouth/league?sort=predicted (click the link below the table "This predicted table was calculated by predicting the scores that you may reveal below") - the likelihood of us being in the play-offs.

Looking at the fixtures and predicted results we will "drop" ten points.  Without calculating who we would take points off if we were to win ALL our remaining games the "extra" ten would put us in 5th place, so...easy peasy lemon squeezy...

Their predicted results show Ebbsfleet as only picking up 14 points from their remaining 8 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats). If we added a line for Ebbsfleet to the above list it would read

After 34 games, City had 50 points, Ebbsfleet currently have 58.

City would then have to catch up with all but one of those teams (Ebbsfleet 8, Dover 7, Havant 5, Concord 4, Eastbourne 3 and Bishops Stortford 1).

Beau Nash wrote:I use this as one way of assessing  - http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/confsouth/league?sort=predicted (click the link below the table "This predicted table was calculated by predicting the scores that you may reveal below") - the likelihood of us being in the play-offs.

Havant have 7 games in 15 days. Those predictions show them getting 3 wins 3 draws and a defeat (against sutton). If they manage that they will deserve to go up.