Truro V City

BenE wrote:Games in hand don't work like that. Weston have 14 games left. They have been averaging approximately one point per game so you would expect them to finish on 48 points. We have 13 games left. We have been getting a fraction better than one point a game which would give us 51 points.

Although we have been getting a lot of draws we would be better off winning one losing one.

Weston have just 10 games left, City have 9.

All top teams played now so it's game on with 9 to go.

It is vital to stay out of that bottom 3 and GO's arrival has achieved that.

Would 2 wins and 3 draws keep us up? (9 points to 46)

Lets hope Pratt has now found his scoring boots. He has been a big disappointment this season.

Sir Ged Roddy wrote:

BenE wrote:Games in hand don't work like that. Weston have 14 games left. They have been averaging approximately one point per game so you would expect them to finish on 48 points. We have 13 games left. We have been getting a fraction better than one point a game which would give us 51 points.

Although we have been getting a lot of draws we would be better off winning one losing one.

Weston have just 10 games left, City have 9.

I wondered why I was ending with too many points. So Weston would finish with 44 and we would have 46/47 which is what I thought when Owers took over.

If we had continued as we were going we would have ended with 38 points.

... and been relegated

BenE wrote:Games in hand don't work like that.

Don't work like what? Weston's game is hand is Basingstoke at home. For me that's concerning, as their opponents could virtually be down by then. Do you agree it would have been better if it had been away to a team chasing promotion?

I think another important factor now is our goal difference - that could be worth 3 points or more as it is tight among teams around us. At the moment we have a better goal difference but that 3 goals against us at Truro didn't help. It is getting close!

Surely you mean the GD could be worth one point more.

comrade powell wrote:

BenE wrote:Games in hand don't work like that.

Don't work like what? Weston's game is hand is Basingstoke at home. For me that's concerning, as their opponents could virtually be down by then. Do you agree it would have been better if it had been away to a team chasing promotion?

If it was the end of the season and WSM had one game left, and we had none but were 2 points better off, then it would be better if they were playing, say, Truro. However their form for the season is gaining an average of 1 point per game. Therefore over the games they have left, including Basingstoke, you would expect them to get 10 more points irrespective of that result.

having said this there is a fly in the ointment. If you exclude the first six games then their form is substantially better than ours. They achieve 1.3 points per game whereas we achieve 0.7 points per game. We really need to up our points secured to better than 1.3 per game ie another 12 points.

I think there are 5 or 6 other teams in the mix - Havant, Whitehawk, Hayes, Chelmsford and Stortford - so there are lots of possibilities.

If you say so! I prefer the simple stat that they are 3 points behind with a game in hand, which is just about as winnable as they come. And as for points per game, I'd say the real fly in the ointment is that form tends to go out of the window in the final games. Teams at either end of the table can find hidden reserves of energy, while mid table teams lose focus. But have you considered numbers of home and away games remaining for the two clubs and the present averages for each?

I hope this is all becomes irrelevant and we prove things have improved as much as some claim since Owers arrived by winning the next 3!

comrade powell wrote:I hope this is all becomes irrelevant and we prove things have improved as much as some claim since Owers arrived by winning the next 3!  

Yes I do claim - I know what I have seen - and what I saw before.

getting a team scoring and winning is incredibly difficult after they have lost belief in themselves - which was all too evident in January.

I had a lot of time for Adie and Archie (and the effort they put in) but as I have said before, I think they clung on for way too long which is why avoiding relegation this season is so touch and go.

Goals are the concern. Relegated teams don't score many. We are one of if not the lowest scoring teams at the moment.

BenE wrote:

comrade powell wrote:I hope this is all becomes irrelevant and we prove things have improved as much as some claim since Owers arrived by winning the next 3!  

Yes I do claim - I know what I have seen - and what I saw before.

getting a team scoring and winning is incredibly difficult after they have lost belief in themselves - which was all too evident in January.

I had a lot of time for Adie and Archie (and the effort they put in) but as I have said before, I think they clung on for way too long which is why avoiding relegation this season is so touch and go.

Save that for the end of April, in case we are relegated! But I agree with what you say at the end - it seemed to be obvious to all except those in charge at the club. That's why I made the claim at the time that there didn't appear to be any accountability.

Cancel your weekend in Torquay next season then....
http://www.thenonleaguefootballpaper.com/latest-news/conference-south-step-two/15453/truro-city-to-remain-at-treyew-road-next-season-as-upgrades-start/

Assuming we stay up
Assuming Truro don't go up (actaully that's irrelevant now)
Assuming Torquay don't come down