"PASITIVE" (Optimistic?) THOUGHTS

BenE wrote:Not sure what the difference is between 'positive' and 'pasitive' but it appears to be to ignore all the evidence. We are achieving 1 point a game. If we get 47 points from here we will have done better than the whole of this season apart from the first 6 games.

"Pasitive" is the opposite of "Nagative", the other topic.

Whilst this topic was a bit tongue in cheek, it was intended to put the positive, optimistic, slant on our perilous position.  Now I am using it as a fixture list / current position / forecast results / concentration of the games we need to focus on to see how we stand in the relegation battle. Please watch for errors on the updates.

I like to be as positive as the next person, but if we cant keep a clean sheet and struggle to create chances let alone score then there is only one end to this season. Form table shows Hayes and Margate as bottom 2, with us fifth from bottom due to the freak win over Weston, the games to win.

Margate seem to be in freefall and lost about 8 in a row now. According to the Non League Paper their big money backer has pulled out and reverting to part time next season. Some players on £1000/Wk and all players and manager leaving at end of season. If true can't see them having the heart for a relegation dogfight. Let's hope not anyway !

And on Saturday Margate face Sutton, who now look to be heading for the title. In fact all the strugglers, apart from Weston, face difficult games next. As Luton Roman says, there is nothing in our form or play that suggests that Sascha's prediction will come true and everything points to those final two matches, which on paper look our easiest remaining.

All about playing teams at the right time. Would be good to play Hayes and Margate now, will they have recovered in a few weeks? Playing Whitehawk when we should have would have been good, their results have been more even since. We played St.Albans at the right time for sure in Feb before their recent stellar run. Thankfully a postponement helped break that.

Concord still in with a play off shout, speaking of which we have always thought 70 pts was the min requirement for that, certainly wont be this season, a very uneven top 5.

Agree with Gerry.

We are a point a game team and for weeks I have said that scraping survival at 46 points is the end game.

Having said that a win and 2 draws in the last 5 games is very possible and probably enough.

It is incredible that we are at this point but I'll save the post mortem til later.

I think we'll do it.

Conversely Martin I think Eastbourne are the target winnable games.

and Whitehawk.....they both look mid table

Remember what Sutton did to us at TP a few years back when they had nothing to play for and we were expecting to reach the play offs. 4-0 wasn't it? I believe strange results affect teams at the top and bottom rather than mid table as the pressure gets to players. But Gerry is right about playing teams at the right/wrong times and I'd guess Hayes and Margate could be saying the same about us!

The good news is that the last 4 games are all winnable with a point at Concord possible maybe. Our record suggests one win at best!

 

Tuesday 12th April 2016	Predicted Results
Hemel Hempstead Town v St Albans City	3
Truro City v Weston-super-Mare	3
Saturday 16th April 2016
Bath City v Eastbourne Borough	3
Bishop’s Stortford v Margate	3
Hayes & Yeading United v Concord Rangers		3
St Albans City v Havant & Waterlooville	3
Weston-super-Mare v Whitehawk	1	1
Tuesday 19th April 2016
Bath City v Whitehawk	1	1
Havant & Waterlooville v Truro		3
Saturday 23rd April 2016
Concord Rangers v Havant & Waterlooville	3
Hayes & Yeading United v Bath City		3
Margate v Hemel Hempstead Town		3
Wealdstone v St Albans City	0	3
Weston-super-Mare v Maidenhead United	1	1
Saturday 30th April 2016
Bath City v Margate	3
Gosport Borough v Hayes & Yeading United	3
Havant & Waterlooville v Weston-super-Mare	1	1
St Albans City v Dartford	1	1

 

Team	Games to Play	Points	Final Points	Final Position
Bath	4	10	54	16
St Albans	4	7	48	17
Weston	4	3	47	18
Havant	4	2	44	19
Margate	3	0	44	20
Hayes	3	0	42	21

So far, against his predictions in his first post, Beau Nash has been wrong in 5 out of 7 results.

Sorry, that should read second.

Truro already have games scheduled for all 3 remaining Tuesdays, so the Havant v Truro game will have to be on a Thursday.

Worked out well for Havant. Home v team who ve had long trip after many games close together, likely to have booked place in play offs and cd rest some key players.

Weston win 3-1 at Truro tonight. But it could have been worse as St. Albans draw 2-2 at Hemel after being 2 up.

End of season madness continues as relegation threatened clubs continue to beat play off hopefuls. 

Saturday 16th April 2016	Predicted Results
Bath City v Eastbourne Borough	3
Bishop’s Stortford v Margate	3
Hayes & Yeading United v Concord Rangers		3
St Albans City v Havant & Waterlooville	3
Weston-super-Mare v Whitehawk	1	1
Tuesday 19th April 2016
Bath City v Whitehawk	1	1
Havant & Waterlooville v Truro		3
Saturday 23rd April 2016
Concord Rangers v Havant & Waterlooville	3
Hayes & Yeading United v Bath City		3
Margate v Hemel Hempstead Town		3
Wealdstone v St Albans City	0	3
Weston-super-Mare v Maidenhead United	1	1
Saturday 30th April 2016
Bath City v Margate	3
Gosport Borough v Hayes & Yeading United	3
Havant & Waterlooville v Weston-super-Mare	1	1
St Albans City v Dartford	1	1

 

Team	Games to Play	Points	Final Points	Final Position
Bath	4	10	54	16
Weston	3	3	50	17
St Albans	3	7	49	18
Havant	4	2	44	19
Margate	3	0	44	20
Hayes	3	0	42	21

Weston have done well and look safe to me.

St. Albans being pegged back was more important.

Hayes and Margate have the worst current form by any measure, so whatever the "errors" in my predicted results I am predicting they join Basingstoke in being relegated.

With us having to play both, two wins against them, will almost certainly ensure our survival...hopefully. 

I'd certainly have more confidence in your predictions if more than 2 out of 10 results had been correct.

I don't think you need to analyze every game until the end of the season to form the view that Hayes and Margate are most at risk.

But certainly the view that we will end up with 4 points more than Weston is Pasitive.

Guess we'd take this final scenario:

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/natsouth/league/predicted

Luton Roman wrote:Guess we'd take this final scenario:

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/natsouth/league/predicted

So we are gonna go unbeaten from now to the end of the season, with two wins... sounds a deal I'm willing to accept.