National South odds

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National South odds

Post by Luton Roman on Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:12 pm

City at 12/1 with Betway. 7th favourites with Dartford, Chelmsford, Hampton, Poole, Oxford?, and Hungerford in front of us.

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Re: National South odds

Post by pete mac on Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:23 am

Worth a tenner

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Re: National South odds

Post by stillmanjunior on Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:54 am

I don't get Oxford's. Are they being bankrolled?
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Re: National South odds

Post by yuffie on Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:54 am

Yes, I keep seeing Oxford amongst the favourities and don't get it. The others all make sense, even if they are simply based on last season.

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Re: National South odds

Post by 2weirdtown on Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:42 pm

I'd think Oxford would be rather wary of anyone appearing to want to wave money around after their former President got 12 years in the USA (in May) for fraud.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:01 pm

Got this from my Oxford correspondent.

Strange that. They have got closer ties to Oxford United who are part funding the new plastic pitch and mutual youth development, but I can't see that doing much more for them than getting United's youngsters as loans. Which just helped stave off relegation last season.
I did buy two bags of nuts at the last home game of the season, maybe that's done it.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Roy D Hacksaw on Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:38 am

Here's a link to the live odds, for your reference. That's about where I'd want to be, to be honest. No pressure on winning, but carefully regarded as dangerous...

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league-south/winner

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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:37 pm

There are a couple of odd positions in that live checker. Obviously, they are bookies' odds so, you know, but Gloucester City are so far down. They were 10th in the Conference North and I don't know that that is a weaker league. Havant & Waterlooville seem quite high up as well so I don't know whether they have had any investment and subsequent buying in the close season. East Thurrock seem a bit low as well.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:46 pm

Here are this season's odds checkers placings. Torquay seem a bit low down to me unless I have missed something. I would put us as sneaking in a place below. I also would have thought that this was done before news of Truro sharing at Plainmoor as I think that is going to hit them hard and they will be lower than that.

Billericay

Dartford

Woking

Chelmsford

Torquay

Bath City

Hampton and Richmond

Concord Rangers

Hemel Hempstead Town

Welling

St Albans

Wealdstone

Slough

Dulwich

Oxford City

Truro City

Chippenham Town

Weston Super Mare

Eastbourne Borough

East Thurrock United

Gloucester City

Hungerford Town
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Re: National South odds

Post by Midsomer-steve on Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:41 pm

Thanks for the insight Mark. The one surprise to me is the high placing of Concorde - are they being bankrolled or something? I would place them near the bottom.
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Re: National South odds

Post by stillmanjunior on Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:08 pm

Concord have a new managerial duo and have signed a lot of new players. I think they’ll be mid table. I’ll post my predicted table tomorrow.

Chippenham won’t finish that low either.
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Re: National South odds

Post by comrade powell on Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:09 pm

At yesterday's Q + A Jerry was asked who he thought would be our main rivals for promotion. Apart from the usual suspects he did mention Concord as being his dark horses.
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Re: National South odds

Post by stillmanjunior on Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:18 pm

Welling for me could challenge. King has a decent record in this division and if he’s given a big budget (always seems to happen) they should do well. Lost Coombes to Billericay though which is a miss.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Roy D Hacksaw on Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:25 pm

Marc Monitor wrote:Here are this season's odds checkers placings.

It's not the placing, obv, just the bookies' assumed likelihood of winning the title.

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Re: National South odds

Post by Major Icewater on Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:12 pm

Surely bookmakers set initial odds and once bets start being made the current odds will also take account of their liabilities. I would imagine there is limited betting activity on our league but if someone put £5k on us to be champions we would probably be installed as favourites. It does not mean the bookies now think we are the best team in the league.

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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:18 pm

I appreciate the points and the capriciousness nature of odds and betting in nature (hence never betting myself). However, it's an interesting pointer.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Dusty Lynfield on Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:41 pm

I was showing Frankie Artus the odds on Sunday at the Bath City Open Day.....he was amazed that Wealdstone were so low down, as he believed they had one of the biggest budgets (Jerry also mentioned them as title contenders).
I think our chances will be tied to the squad staying relatively injury free. With our smaller squad we’ve got the quality to compete with the big spenders, but if we get a couple of long term injuries, we could be in trouble (to make playoffs I mean).
I think this is the best squad in the 6 years since I’ve been following City - can’t wait for Saturday!
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Re: National South odds

Post by kermit on Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:57 pm

Without wishing to sound like Michael York.....we thought this time last season we could make the playoffs, but we all know how the first three matches turned out!
Yes, things look promising, but the league looks a lot stronger than last year.....don't put your house on a bet!
The first 10 games all look difficult to me......and the rest don't look easy.....I'm telling you Brian!
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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:11 pm

I never would put my house on a bet. Don't forget that, last season, we were ludicrously close to sneaking into the play-offs and Jerry didn't have a full season not his own team. This year, he does and already that team looks good.
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Re: National South odds

Post by comrade powell on Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:53 pm

kermit wrote:Without wishing to sound like Michael York.....we thought this time last season we could make the playoffs, but we all know how the first three matches turned out!
Yes, things look promising, but the league looks a lot stronger than last year.....don't put your house on a bet!
The first 10 games all look difficult to me......and the rest don't look easy.....I'm telling you Brian!

Wise words. Thank goodness the phoney war will soon be over and we can judge the team in some proper matches.
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Re: National South odds

Post by stillmanjunior on Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:09 pm

Well, this is what I've gone for anyway. Below I've added what I did last season with their actual positions in brackets:
1. Billericay Town
2. Hemel Hempstead Town
3. Woking
4. Welling United
5. Bath City
6. Wealdstone
7. Chelmsford City
8. Torquay United
9. Dartford
10. Chippenham Town
11. St Albans City
12. Concord Rangers
13. Dulwich Hamlet
14. Hampton & Richmond Borough
15. Weston-super-Mare
16. Oxford City
17. Eastbourne Borough
18. Slough Town
19. East Thurrock United
20. Gloucester City
21. Truro City
22. Hungerford Town

Last season:
1. Dartford (2)
2. Chelmsford City (3)
3. Havant & Waterlooville (1, tipped them to be promoted via play-offs)
4. Hampton & Richmond Borough (4)
5. Wealdstone (11)
6. Eastbourne Borough (18)
7. Bath City (9)
8. St Albans City (eighth)
9. Gloucester City (14)
10. Hungerford Town (19)
11. Oxford City (16)
12. Poole Town (20)
13. Chippenham Town (13)
14. Hemel Hempstead Town (5)
15. East Thurrock United (15)
16. Welling United (10)
17. Bognor Regis Town (22)
18. Braintree Town (6)
19. Weston-Super-Mare (12)
20. Whitehawk (21)
21. Concord Rangers (17)
22. Truro City (7)


Last edited by stillmanjunior on Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: National South odds

Post by comrade powell on Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:41 pm

So it's home to Wealdstone in the play offs!
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Re: National South odds

Post by tovid on Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:14 pm

I think WSM will do better than chipnum. They were stronger than us last season and chipnum have taken all our cast offs.
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Re: National South odds

Post by stillmanjunior on Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:09 pm

Greenslade is a big loss for Weston. Hill will score a few goals and I expect Lucas will do alright. Quality keeper and decent enough midfield. If they put in more performances like they did against us against other teams they'll be fine, but the league is miles better this year than last.

Chippenham finished last season well and not many teams will enjoy it at Hardenhuish with McCootie not letting them settle and Compton giving them the runaround. I can see them upsetting a few. Last season they only picked up two points from losing positions, can't see their heads dropping like that again.

Neither will go down but I don't think they have enough to go up, either.
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Re: National South odds

Post by Marc Monitor on Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:54 pm

TO be honest, Mark, I think I would go with your predictions more than the odds. You know the league better (certainly than me) and you aren't controlled by the idiosyncrasies of betting (I assume).

Interesting that you have put Torquay so low as well. You agree with me about Truro, I see. Is that due to their squad, the groundshare or both?
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